Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
36 San Diego St. 61.8%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 7 15 - 5 +11.2      +5.2 52 +6.0 29 62.5 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Utah St. 30.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 7 13 - 7 +7.7      +3.2 91 +4.5 64 67.3 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 Boise St. 23.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 9 13 - 7 +6.4      +3.9 75 +2.5 100 70.4 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 UNLV 15.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 12 - 8 +4.6      +3.3 89 +1.3 128 66.8 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
104 Nevada 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 8 9 - 7 +4.5      +3.8 78 +0.7 151 74.5 50 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Colorado St. 12.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 11 - 9 +4.0      +5.0 56 -0.9 198 70.7 124 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 Fresno St. 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 11 - 13 +0.7      +0.4 160 +0.3 160 61.4 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 Wyoming 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 12 -0.6      -1.5 211 +1.0 140 65.6 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 New Mexico 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 12 8 - 12 -1.0      +0.2 165 -1.3 214 76.7 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Air Force 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 17 6 - 14 -4.1      0.0 173 -4.1 295 69.7 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 San Jose St. 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 18 4 - 16 -6.9      -1.9 229 -5.1 309 79.3 17 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.2 47.7 22.3 12.3 7.5 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 3.3 23.7 20.7 16.7 12.9 9.0 6.6 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3
Boise St. 3.8 15.4 18.6 17.3 14.7 11.2 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.4
UNLV 4.5 11.0 14.3 15.0 13.7 12.3 10.6 8.4 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.0
Nevada 6.3 1.0 3.4 6.9 10.6 14.9 16.1 16.6 13.6 8.9 5.5 2.4
Colorado St. 4.9 7.6 11.3 13.5 14.9 13.6 12.1 10.4 7.3 5.3 3.0 1.2
Fresno St. 5.4 9.1 10.4 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.1 9.0 8.5 5.8 3.0
Wyoming 7.1 1.4 3.6 5.1 7.3 9.4 11.1 13.1 14.6 14.7 12.5 7.2
New Mexico 7.2 1.5 3.1 4.8 6.4 8.9 11.4 13.4 14.0 15.6 12.9 8.0
Air Force 8.7 0.3 0.7 1.3 3.0 4.2 6.5 9.6 13.2 17.8 22.4 21.0
San Jose St. 9.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.4 5.5 9.2 14.3 24.5 38.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 5.6 8.3 10.4 12.2 14.4 14.3 12.9 8.6 3.8
Utah St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.4 6.2 8.0 9.8 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.6 8.3 6.0 3.2 1.0
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.3 7.9 9.8 11.2 11.9 11.4 10.4 8.5 5.6 3.9 1.7 0.4
UNLV 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.4 8.0 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.3 8.2 6.1 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3
Nevada 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.7 7.6 10.3 12.5 13.3 13.6 12.4 9.3 6.0 3.5 1.2 0.3
Colorado St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.2 4.1 5.6 8.0 9.3 10.7 11.2 11.4 10.7 8.5 6.8 4.4 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1
Fresno St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.9 7.1 8.6 8.8 9.2 8.7 8.8 7.7 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.8
Wyoming 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.8 4.5 7.1 8.8 10.1 12.0 10.8 10.5 9.1 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.0 6.9 9.3 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.4 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 6 - 14 1.6 4.7 7.5 10.5 12.6 12.8 11.7 10.6 9.2 6.6 4.8 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 4 - 16 5.1 9.4 13.7 14.6 13.8 12.2 9.9 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 47.7% 37.0 9.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 23.7% 16.4 6.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 15.4% 9.9 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
UNLV 11.0% 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Nevada 1.0% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7.6% 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 9.1% 6.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Air Force 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 61.8% 35.2% 26.6% 12   2.2 3.0 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 6.9 8.1 8.8 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 38.2 41.0%
Utah St. 30.9% 18.5% 12.4% 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.9 3.6 5.1 6.6 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 69.1 15.3%
Boise St. 23.0% 13.3% 9.7% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.9 5.5 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 77.0 11.2%
UNLV 15.0% 9.3% 5.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 85.0 6.4%
Nevada 14.0% 7.7% 6.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 86.0 6.9%
Colorado St. 12.6% 8.0% 4.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 87.4 4.9%
Fresno St. 4.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 95.1 1.3%
Wyoming 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 97.6 0.5%
New Mexico 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 97.6 0.6%
Air Force 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.1%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 61.8% 4.6% 59.3% 32.8% 14.2% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.6%
Utah St. 30.9% 3.4% 29.2% 12.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 23.0% 3.2% 21.4% 8.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 15.0% 2.1% 13.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 14.0% 2.5% 12.6% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 12.6% 1.7% 11.6% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 4.9% 0.7% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 2.4% 0.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 44.1 45.0 10.1 0.8 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.6 0.1 50.2 41.8 7.4 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 57.7% 0.7 42.3 46.5 10.5 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 24.9% 0.3 75.1 23.4 1.5 0.0
Elite Eight 10.1% 0.1 89.9 9.9 0.2
Final Four 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Final Game 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Champion 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8